Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Jonoon host Henan Jianye at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Qingdao Jonoon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Qingdao Jonoon's home record at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Qingdao Jonoon at 1.40 PPG versus Henan Jianye's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Qingdao Jonoon register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Henan Jianye in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Qingdao Jonoon, 1 for Henan Jianye and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Henan Jianye winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Qingdao Jonoon 42% versus Henan Jianye 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Qingdao Jonoon 46% | Henan Jianye 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.66 xG and Henan Jianye 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.008 / defence 1.290 | Henan Jianye attack 0.955 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.837 / away 1.325. Data: 52 Qingdao Jonoon games / 52 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 39% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 38%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Henan Jianye 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Qingdao Jonoon at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Qingdao Jonoon 60% | Henan Jianye 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 39% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.66 / Henan Jianye 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.008 / def 1.290 | Henan Jianye attack 0.955 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.837 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Henan Jianye xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Qingdao Jonoon 0 - 2 Henan Jianye.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 39% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
Record (3 meetings): Qingdao Jonoon 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Qingdao Jonoon's attack at 1.01x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Qingdao Jonoon's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
39%
2.58
24%
4.23
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
3.29
1.63
Henan Jianye xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
7%
14.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.63 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Qingdao Jonoon come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 11D 28L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Qingdao Jonoon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.23 PPG from 52 outings (16W 16D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Qingdao Jonoon on 0.96 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Qingdao Jonoon's home form reads 11W 5D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Qingdao Jonoon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.80 points per game from 25 outings (4W 8D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Henan Jianye's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Qingdao Jonoon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Qingdao Jonoon are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.27 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Blended
Henan Jianye
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Qingdao Jonoon have gone 13W 11D 28L in their last 52 games (0.96 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 16W 16D 20L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Qingdao Jonoon at home or Henan Jianye away?
Qingdao Jonoon's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Qingdao Jonoon at home: 1.52 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2026, when Henan Jianye won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Qingdao Jonoon's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Qingdao Jonoon
2
Draws
4
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 5-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Qingdao Jonoon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Qingdao Jonoon 52%, Henan Jianye 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Qingdao Jonoon) and 52% (Henan Jianye). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Qingdao Jonoon have failed to score in 28% of games; Henan Jianye in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Qingdao Jonoon play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Qingdao Jonoon's recent matches and 56% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Qingdao Jonoon vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Qingdao Jonoon's matches and 52% of Henan Jianye's.
Do Qingdao Jonoon and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Qingdao Jonoon have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-2 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.66 xG and Henan Jianye 1.63 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against Henan Jianye attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 39% | Draw 24% | Henan Jianye 38%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 46%, Henan Jianye 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.96 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.