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Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Qingdao Jonoon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-3 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.58 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.24 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hangzhou Greentown outscored their 1.24 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.84 / defence 0.86 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 45% | Draw 25% | Hangzhou Greentown 30%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Hangzhou Greentown win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights