Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Qingdao Jonoon at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Qingdao Youth Football Stadium to face Qingdao Jonoon in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Qingdao Jonoon (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Qingdao Jonoon's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Qingdao Jonoon are significantly better at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Jonoon 1.72 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.825 / defence 0.995 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.835 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.472. Dalian Zhixing bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Qingdao Jonoon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Qingdao Jonoon games / 3 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 26%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Jonoon 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Dalian Zhixing 3.85. Qingdao Jonoon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Qingdao Jonoon as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Qingdao Jonoon if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Qingdao Jonoon 1.72 / Dalian Zhixing 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.825 / def 0.995 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.835 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Qingdao Jonoon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Dalian Zhixing xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 2 April 2025 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Qingdao Jonoon 1 - 1 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Jonoon a 48% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Qingdao Jonoon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing in?
Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Qingdao Jonoon home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Qingdao Jonoon's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Dalian Zhixing's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.83x) against Qingdao Jonoon's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 33/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Qingdao Jonoon Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.80
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Qingdao Jonoon xG
Total xG
2.94
1.22
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
5%
21.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Qingdao Jonoon and 1.22 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Jonoon vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Jonoon
Pre-Season
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Qingdao Jonoon have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Qingdao Jonoon
1
Draws
2
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing?
From 4 meetings on record, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Dalian Zhixing 2-1 Qingdao Jonoon.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Jonoon home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Qingdao Jonoon and Dalian Zhixing finished level at 1-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.72 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.22 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.83 / defence 1.22, drawn from 33/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 48% | Draw 26% | Dalian Zhixing 26%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.