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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Qingdao Jonoon run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Changchun Yatai.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Jonoon beat Changchun Yatai 3-0 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.45 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.22 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.70 / defence 0.94 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.91 / defence 1.24, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 41% | Draw 28% | Changchun Yatai 31%, with Qingdao Jonoon to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Jonoon win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights