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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Jonoon and Beijing Guoan finished level at 1-1 at Qingdao Youth Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Jonoon 1.31 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.62 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.31 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Qingdao Jonoon 31% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 44%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Qingdao Jonoon 43%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights