Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Qingdao Huanghai face Hangzhou Greentown.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Qingdao Huanghai host Hangzhou Greentown at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Super League (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Saturday 8 January 2022 at 07:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Qingdao Huanghai — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
Qingdao Huanghai at home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Qingdao Huanghai 1.06 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.800 / defence 1.446 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.286. Qingdao Huanghai's defence rating of 1.446 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Data: built from Qingdao Huanghai's last 14 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 0.
Result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 24% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 47%. Fair-value odds: Qingdao Huanghai 4.25 | Draw 3.43 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.12. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 January 2022 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Qingdao Huanghai 24% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Qingdao Huanghai 1.06 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.800 / def 1.446 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Hangzhou Greentown xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown FAQs
What time does Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Saturday 8 January 2022 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What was the final score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Qingdao Huanghai 0 - 1 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium.
What competition is Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round) (China).
Who is favourite to win Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Qingdao Huanghai a 24% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Qingdao Huanghai's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Hangzhou Greentown's attack versus Qingdao Huanghai's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Qingdao Huanghai's last 14 games and Hangzhou Greentown's last 0 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
24%
4.25
29%
3.43
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Qingdao Huanghai xG
Total xG
2.65
1.58
Hangzhou Greentown xG
4.25
24%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
5%
20.64
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Qingdao Huanghai and 1.58 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Qingdao Huanghai (Home) vs Hangzhou Greentown (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Qingdao Huanghai
Pre-Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 12 January 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Qingdao Huanghai
1
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Qingdao Huanghai vs Hangzhou Greentown H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Qingdao Huanghai have won 0, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2022: Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 Qingdao Huanghai.
Who has won more matches between Qingdao Huanghai and Hangzhou Greentown?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Qingdao Huanghai home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Qingdao Huanghai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Qingdao Huanghai 0-1 at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium, Relegation Round, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Qingdao Huanghai 1.06 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.58 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Huanghai fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Qingdao Huanghai attack 0.80 / defence 1.45 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 14/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Qingdao Huanghai 24% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 47%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.