Nantong Zhiyun 1-3 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Beijing Guoan (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nantong Zhiyun face Beijing Guoan.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beijing Guoan make the trip to Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Nantong Zhiyun in Super League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 27 October 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Current Form
Nantong Zhiyun's overall Super League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nantong Zhiyun's home record at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beijing Guoan have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beijing Guoan are 1.00 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun in recent Super League fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Beijing Guoan in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Beijing Guoan hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 2–5 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Nantong Zhiyun goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Beijing Guoan goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nantong Zhiyun 60% and Beijing Guoan 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantong Zhiyun 43% | Beijing Guoan 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantong Zhiyun 1.26 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.720 / defence 1.187 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.106 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.882 / away 1.290. Nantong Zhiyun's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Nantong Zhiyun games / 58 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 47%. Fair-value odds: Nantong Zhiyun 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Beijing Guoan 2.13. Beijing Guoan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beijing Guoan as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Beijing Guoan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nantong Zhiyun 60% | Beijing Guoan 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Nantong Zhiyun 1.26 / Beijing Guoan 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.720 / def 1.187 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.106 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.882 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Beijing Guoan (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Beijing Guoan xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Nantong Zhiyun 1 - 3 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Nantong Zhiyun a 28% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Beijing Guoan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan?
Record (3 meetings): Nantong Zhiyun 0W | Draws 0 | Beijing Guoan 3W.
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan in?
Nantong Zhiyun (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nantong Zhiyun's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Beijing Guoan's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.11x) against Nantong Zhiyun's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
28%
3.57
25%
4.00
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Nantong Zhiyun xG
Total xG
2.96
1.69
Beijing Guoan xG
3.57
28%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
18%
5.44
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
5%
19.43
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Nantong Zhiyun and 1.69 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nantong Zhiyun come into this having played 58 games, going 9W 17D 32L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Beijing Guoan sit at 1.78 PPG from 58 outings (29W 16D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Beijing Guoan carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.02 PPG clear of Nantong Zhiyun — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Nantong Zhiyun's home form reads 5W 7D 17L across 29 games on their own ground, a 0.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Beijing Guoan have taken 1.48 points per game from 29 outings (11W 10D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nantong Zhiyun are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.97 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nantong Zhiyun have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Beijing Guoan in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantong Zhiyun
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Nantong Zhiyun have gone 9W 17D 32L in their last 58 games (0.76 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 29W 16D 13L in their last 58 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantong Zhiyun at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantong Zhiyun at home: 0.76 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Nantong Zhiyun or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantong Zhiyun have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 5-2 on 26 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantong Zhiyun have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nantong Zhiyun
0
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan?
From 4 meetings on record, Nantong Zhiyun have won 0, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2024, when Nantong Zhiyun 1-3 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantong Zhiyun are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantong Zhiyun 48%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nantong Zhiyun) and 52% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Beijing Guoan in 31%; Nantong Zhiyun have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantong Zhiyun home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantong Zhiyun play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Nantong Zhiyun's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nantong Zhiyun vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nantong Zhiyun's recent games and 52% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantong Zhiyun and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Nantong Zhiyun have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Nantong Zhiyun.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Nantong Zhiyun 1-3 at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantong Zhiyun 1.26 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.69 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.72 / defence 1.19 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.11 / defence 0.93, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantong Zhiyun 28% | Draw 25% | Beijing Guoan 47%, with Beijing Guoan to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantong Zhiyun 43%, Beijing Guoan 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantong Zhiyun's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.76. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantong Zhiyun (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.