Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre to face Meizhou Kejia in Super League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 June 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Meizhou Kejia have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tianjin Teda are 0.80 PPG clear of Meizhou Kejia in recent Super League fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Tianjin Teda in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Meizhou Kejia 1W, Tianjin Teda 2W, 4D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Meizhou Kejia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 62% and Tianjin Teda 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 60% | Tianjin Teda 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.59 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.880 / defence 1.486 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.996 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.678 / away 1.328. Data: 45 Meizhou Kejia games / 45 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 32% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 47%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.12 | Draw 4.55 | Tianjin Teda 2.13. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.97) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 60% | Tianjin Teda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jun 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 32% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.59 / Tianjin Teda 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.880 / def 1.486 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.996 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.678 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Tianjin Teda xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 29 June 2025 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Meizhou Kejia 1 - 2 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 32% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 47% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
Record (7 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 1W | Draws 4 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (0.88) and Tianjin Teda's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.00x) against Meizhou Kejia's defence (1.49x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
32%
3.17
22%
4.60
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
3.55
1.97
Tianjin Teda xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
14%
7.14
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
4%
22.67
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.97 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Meizhou Kejia's recent record stands at 15W 16D 29L from 60 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 23W 21D 16L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Meizhou Kejia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Meizhou Kejia have managed 11W 8D 11L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 11W 6D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.40 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Meizhou Kejia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Tianjin Teda in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 games (1.02 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.37 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 June 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
4
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 29 June 2025, when Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Meizhou Kejia, 67% for Tianjin Teda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Meizhou Kejia) and 57% (Tianjin Teda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Meizhou Kejia have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Meizhou Kejia's games and 67% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Meizhou Kejia's matches and 57% of Tianjin Teda's.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Meizhou Kejia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Meizhou Kejia 1-2 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.59 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.97 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.88 / defence 1.49 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 32% | Draw 22% | Tianjin Teda 47%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Tianjin Teda 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.