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Dominant Meizhou Kejia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Meizhou Kejia beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 2.37 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.32 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.09 / defence 1.30 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.69 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 59% | Draw 22% | Sichuan Jiuniu 19%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 57%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 0.90 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights