Meizhou Kejia 0-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sichuan Jiuniu at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Meizhou Kejia welcome Sichuan Jiuniu to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Meizhou Kejia have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.08 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.695 / defence 1.144 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.909 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.555. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Meizhou Kejia games / 12 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 25% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 49%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2.04. Sichuan Jiuniu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sichuan Jiuniu at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sichuan Jiuniu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 25% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.08 / Sichuan Jiuniu 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.695 / def 1.144 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.909 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: Sichuan Jiuniu (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Meizhou Kejia 0 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 25% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sichuan Jiuniu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Meizhou Kejia home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Meizhou Kejia's attack at 0.69x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sichuan Jiuniu's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sichuan Jiuniu Win
25%
4.01
26%
3.87
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.70
1.62
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
5%
20.18
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.9 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.62 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2025, when Meizhou Kejia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Sichuan Jiuniu specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Meizhou Kejia
2
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 4 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when Sichuan Jiuniu 2-0 Meizhou Kejia.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Meizhou Kejia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 13, as Meizhou Kejia and Sichuan Jiuniu drew 0-0 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.08 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.62 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.69 / defence 1.14 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 25% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 49%, with Sichuan Jiuniu to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.