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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Meizhou Kejia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Meizhou Kejia 1-3 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.29 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.58 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.10 / defence 1.19 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.94 / defence 0.68, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 30% | Draw 26% | Shanghai Shenhua 43%, with Shanghai Shenhua to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Shanghai Shenhua 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights