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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Meizhou Kejia 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Meizhou Kejia 3-4 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.75 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.45 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shandong Luneng outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.02 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 23% | Shandong Luneng 32%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 60%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shandong Luneng (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights