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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Meizhou Kejia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Meizhou Kejia 1-2 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.47 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.69 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.90 / defence 1.40 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 32% | Draw 26% | Qingdao Youth Island 42%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 64%, Qingdao Youth Island 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 0.83 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights