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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Meizhou Kejia edge out Qingdao Jonoon 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Meizhou Kejia beat Qingdao Jonoon 1-0 at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.74 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.36 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.88 / defence 1.38 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.71 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 45% | Draw 25% | Qingdao Jonoon 29%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 66%, Qingdao Jonoon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 0.80 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Meizhou Kejia win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights