Meizhou Kejia 0-3 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Henan Jianye travel to Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium to take on Meizhou Kejia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 June 2024, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Meizhou Kejia's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, Henan Jianye have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Henan Jianye away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Meizhou Kejia at 1.50 PPG versus Henan Jianye's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Meizhou Kejia, 1 for Henan Jianye and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Meizhou Kejia in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Henan Jianye in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Meizhou Kejia 54% versus Henan Jianye 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Meizhou Kejia 57% | Henan Jianye 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.15 xG and Henan Jianye 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.626 / defence 0.949 | Henan Jianye attack 0.990 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.388. Meizhou Kejia's attack strength of 0.626 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Meizhou Kejia games / 46 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 32% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 40%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Henan Jianye 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 32% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Meizhou Kejia 1.15 / Henan Jianye 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.626 / def 0.949 | Henan Jianye attack 0.990 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Meizhou Kejia xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:35 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What was the final score in Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Meizhou Kejia 0 - 3 Henan Jianye.
Where is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium.
What competition is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye part of?
Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Meizhou Kejia a 32% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
Record (5 meetings): Meizhou Kejia 2W | Draws 2 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye in?
Meizhou Kejia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Henan Jianye (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Meizhou Kejia's attack rating (0.63) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Meizhou Kejia's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
32%
3.11
28%
3.54
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Meizhou Kejia xG
Total xG
2.45
1.30
Henan Jianye xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
13%
7.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Meizhou Kejia and 1.30 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Meizhou Kejia come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 13D 27L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.46 PPG from 63 outings (25W 17D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Meizhou Kejia on 1.30 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Meizhou Kejia's home form reads 16W 5D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Meizhou Kejia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (8W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Meizhou Kejia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Meizhou Kejia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.51 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Meizhou Kejia have gone 23W 13D 27L in their last 63 games (1.30 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 25W 17D 21L in their last 63 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Meizhou Kejia at home or Henan Jianye away?
Meizhou Kejia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Meizhou Kejia at home: 1.71 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Meizhou Kejia or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Meizhou Kejia have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 July 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jun 2024, when Henan Jianye won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Meizhou Kejia's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Meizhou Kejia
3
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Meizhou Kejia have won 3, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2025, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Meizhou Kejia.
Who has won more matches between Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye?
Meizhou Kejia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Meizhou Kejia 61%, Henan Jianye 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Meizhou Kejia) and 42% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Meizhou Kejia home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Meizhou Kejia play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Meizhou Kejia's recent matches and 48% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Meizhou Kejia vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Meizhou Kejia's recent games and 42% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Meizhou Kejia and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Meizhou Kejia have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Meizhou Kejia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Meizhou Kejia 0-3 at Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.15 xG and Henan Jianye 1.30 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Henan Jianye outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.63 / defence 0.95 against Henan Jianye attack 0.99 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 32% | Draw 28% | Henan Jianye 40%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 57%, Henan Jianye 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Meizhou Kejia 1.30 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.