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Poisson model favours Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Meizhou Kejia face Hangzhou Greentown.

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Match Analysis

Meizhou Kejia host Hangzhou Greentown at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Meizhou Kejia — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Meizhou Kejia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Meizhou Kejia at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Meizhou Kejia are significantly better at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.

Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hangzhou Greentown, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hangzhou Greentown's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hangzhou Greentown are 1.40 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Hangzhou Greentown, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Meizhou Kejia.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Hangzhou Greentown have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Patterns

Meizhou Kejia in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Meizhou Kejia 59% and Hangzhou Greentown 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Meizhou Kejia 65% | Hangzhou Greentown 76%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Meizhou Kejia 1.55 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 2.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Meizhou Kejia attack 0.911 / defence 1.440 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.237 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.376. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 2.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Meizhou Kejia games / 52 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Meizhou Kejia 23% | Draw 21% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%. Fair-value odds: Meizhou Kejia 4.35 | Draw 4.76 | Hangzhou Greentown 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 2.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 4.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Meizhou Kejia 70% | Hangzhou Greentown 50% BTTS from recent games.

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