🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre, Regular Season - 29, as Meizhou Kejia and Dalian Zhixing drew 2-2 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Meizhou Kejia 1.69 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.60 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Meizhou Kejia attack 0.81 / defence 1.37 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Meizhou Kejia 40% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 36%, with Meizhou Kejia to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Meizhou Kejia 75%, Dalian Zhixing 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights