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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Henan Jianye run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye beat Sichuan Jiuniu 4-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.34 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.17 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.01 / defence 1.29 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.67 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 63% | Draw 20% | Sichuan Jiuniu 17%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 55%, Sichuan Jiuniu 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.06 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights