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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shanghai Shenhua cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Henan Jianye.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shanghai Shenhua beat Henan Jianye 1-3 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.43 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.39 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shanghai Shenhua outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 38% | Draw 25% | Shanghai Shenhua 36%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shanghai Shenhua win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Shanghai Shenhua 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Shanghai Shenhua's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shanghai Shenhua arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shanghai Shenhua (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights