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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Qingdao Youth Island edge out Henan Jianye 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Qingdao Youth Island beat Henan Jianye 2-3 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.60 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.70 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Qingdao Youth Island outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 36% | Draw 24% | Qingdao Youth Island 40%, with Qingdao Youth Island to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Qingdao Youth Island win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights