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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye beat Qingdao Jonoon 3-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 1.71 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.34 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Henan Jianye beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 44% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 28%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 43%, Qingdao Jonoon 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG, Qingdao Jonoon 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Qingdao Jonoon (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights