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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye and Meizhou Kejia finished level at 1-1 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.02 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.51 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Henan Jianye fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.10 / defence 1.37 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 50% | Draw 21% | Meizhou Kejia 29%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 54%, Meizhou Kejia 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.11 PPG, Meizhou Kejia 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights