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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye and Hangzhou Greentown finished level at 2-2 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.12 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.24 / defence 1.02, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 50% | Draw 23% | Hangzhou Greentown 27%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 54%, Hangzhou Greentown 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Henan Jianye 1.19 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights