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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Henan Jianye vs Changchun Yatai fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium plays host to Henan Jianye versus Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 19 October 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Henan Jianye have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Henan Jianye have posted 5W 2D 3L at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Changchun Yatai's overall Super League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Super League this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Henan Jianye, 1.00 for Changchun Yatai — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Henan Jianye have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Changchun Yatai in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Henan Jianye lead 2W to 1W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Henan Jianye winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Henan Jianye goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Changchun Yatai goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Henan Jianye 62% and Changchun Yatai 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 55% | Changchun Yatai 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 1.86 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.133 / defence 0.991 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.753 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.838 / away 1.369. Data: 56 Henan Jianye games / 56 Changchun Yatai games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 56% | Draw 25% | Changchun Yatai 19%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Changchun Yatai 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Henan Jianye as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 80% | Changchun Yatai 60% BTTS from recent games.

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