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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Henan Jianye cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Beijing Guoan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Henan Jianye beat Beijing Guoan 2-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.51 xG and Beijing Guoan 2.04 xG, a combined 4.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.21 / defence 1.17 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.34 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 48% | Draw 20% | Beijing Guoan 31%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 83%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 81% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 57%, Beijing Guoan 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Henan Jianye's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Henan Jianye winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights