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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Wuhan Three Towns 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Wuhan Three Towns 3-2 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.14 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.25 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.89 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 58% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 22%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Wuhan Three Towns 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.30 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights