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Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-0 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.59 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 1.43 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 41% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 34%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 80%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.27 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights