Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center to take on Hangzhou Greentown. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 June 2023, 12:35 UTC.
Form Guide
Hangzhou Greentown — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Super League games this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League this season, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
On current form, Hangzhou Greentown have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with Shenzhen Ruby FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 46% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 37% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.88 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.056 / defence 1.103 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.313. Shenzhen Ruby FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Hangzhou Greentown games / 43 Shenzhen Ruby FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 51% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.35. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Huzhou Olympic Sports Center • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 51% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.88 / Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.056 / def 1.103 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.836 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC kicked off at 12:35 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Hangzhou Greentown 3 - 0 Shenzhen Ruby FC.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC being played?
The match is being played at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 51% chance of winning, Shenzhen Ruby FC a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Record (2 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 1W | Draws 0 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Shenzhen Ruby FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Shenzhen Ruby FC's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Shenzhen Ruby FC's attack versus Hangzhou Greentown's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.84
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.09
1.21
Shenzhen Ruby FC xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
3%
28.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.21 for Shenzhen Ruby FC, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hangzhou Greentown come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 12D 5L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Shenzhen Ruby FC sit at 0.94 PPG from 35 outings (10W 3D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
Hangzhou Greentown carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.95 PPG clear of Shenzhen Ruby FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hangzhou Greentown's home form reads 10W 5D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Shenzhen Ruby FC have taken 1.00 points per game from 17 outings (5W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hangzhou Greentown come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Shenzhen Ruby FC are on 0.86 scored and 2.06 conceded.
Defensively: Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 18W 12D 5L in their last 35 games (1.89 PPG), while Shenzhen Ruby FC have gone 10W 3D 22L in their last 35 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or Shenzhen Ruby FC away?
Hangzhou Greentown's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.06 PPG; Shenzhen Ruby FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or Shenzhen Ruby FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hangzhou Greentown have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Sep 2023, when Hangzhou Greentown won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hangzhou Greentown's record when hosting Shenzhen Ruby FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
1
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 3, Shenzhen Ruby FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 September 2023, when Shenzhen Ruby FC 0-5 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Shenzhen Ruby FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 29%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 53% (Shenzhen Ruby FC).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Shenzhen Ruby FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Shenzhen Ruby FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play Shenzhen Ruby FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 47% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 53% of Shenzhen Ruby FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and Shenzhen Ruby FC tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Shenzhen Ruby FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hangzhou Greentown run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Shenzhen Ruby FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Shenzhen Ruby FC 3-0 at Huzhou Olympic Sports Center, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.88 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.21 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shenzhen Ruby FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.06 / defence 1.10 against Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 51% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 23%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 37%, Shenzhen Ruby FC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shenzhen Ruby FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hangzhou Greentown arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Shenzhen Ruby FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.