Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 Shenzhen Ruby FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs Shenzhen Ruby FC encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Shenzhen Ruby FC travel to Huzhou Olympic Sports Center to take on Hangzhou Greentown in Super League (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Friday 2 June 2023 at 13:35 UK time.

Form Guide

Hangzhou Greentown — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Hangzhou Greentown's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across their last 10 games, Shenzhen Ruby FC have recorded 1W 0D 9L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

When travelling, Shenzhen Ruby FC have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.

On current form, Hangzhou Greentown have the edge — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Hangzhou Greentown, 1 for Shenzhen Ruby FC and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2022, ended Hangzhou Greentown 0–2 Shenzhen Ruby FC — a Shenzhen Ruby FC win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Hangzhou Greentown in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Shenzhen Ruby FC in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 46% versus Shenzhen Ruby FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 37% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.88 xG and Shenzhen Ruby FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.056 / defence 1.103 | Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.836 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.313. Shenzhen Ruby FC's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hangzhou Greentown's projected output up. Data: built from Hangzhou Greentown's last 43 games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 43.

Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 51% | Draw 26% | Shenzhen Ruby FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.95 | Draw 3.84 | Shenzhen Ruby FC 4.40. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hangzhou Greentown's last 10 home games and Shenzhen Ruby FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hangzhou Greentown 50% (last 10 home games) | Shenzhen Ruby FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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