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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG finished level at 2-2 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.91 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 2.23 xG, a combined 4.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.22 / defence 1.13 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.40 / defence 0.94, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 33% | Draw 21% | SHANGHAI SIPG 46%, with SHANGHAI SIPG to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 76% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, SHANGHAI SIPG 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SHANGHAI SIPG arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights