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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown and Shandong Luneng finished level at 2-2 at Huanglong Sports Center, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.30 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.89 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.17 / defence 1.10 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.23 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 47% | Draw 21% | Shandong Luneng 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 75%, Shandong Luneng 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.38 PPG, Shandong Luneng 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights