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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown and Henan Jianye finished level at 2-2 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.38 xG and Henan Jianye 1.20 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.18 / defence 1.06 against Henan Jianye attack 0.78 / defence 0.69, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 41% | Draw 27% | Henan Jianye 32%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights