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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown and Chengdu Better City finished level at 3-3 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.46 xG and Chengdu Better City 1.92 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chengdu Better City outscored their 1.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.09 / defence 1.05 against Chengdu Better City attack 1.34 / defence 0.72, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 28% | Draw 25% | Chengdu Better City 47%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 74%, Chengdu Better City 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights