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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hangzhou Greentown cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Changchun Yatai.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hangzhou Greentown beat Changchun Yatai 4-2 at Huizhou Olympic Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.00 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.17 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Changchun Yatai outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 56% | Draw 23% | Changchun Yatai 21%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 77%, Changchun Yatai 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG, Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hangzhou Greentown win broke the near-deadlock. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights