Guangzhou R&F 0-3 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Dalian Aerbin at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guangzhou R&F face Dalian Aerbin.

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Fixture Analysis

Guangzhou R&F welcome Dalian Aerbin to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League (matchday 7). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 June 2022 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Guangzhou R&F have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Guangzhou R&F at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Aerbin stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Dalian Aerbin away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Guangzhou R&F) versus 1.30 (Dalian Aerbin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Guangzhou R&F's games and 60% of Dalian Aerbin's (from Guangzhou R&F's last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Guangzhou R&F, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jun 2022, ended Guangzhou R&F 0–2 Dalian Aerbin — a Dalian Aerbin win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Guangzhou R&F in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Dalian Aerbin in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou R&F 59% versus Dalian Aerbin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guangzhou R&F 50% | Dalian Aerbin 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou R&F 1.17 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou R&F attack 0.786 / defence 1.701 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.016 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.107. Guangzhou R&F's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Guangzhou R&F's defence rating of 1.701 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Guangzhou R&F's last 20 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 20.

Result probabilities: Guangzhou R&F 22% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 54%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou R&F 4.58 | Draw 4.09 | Dalian Aerbin 1.86. Dalian Aerbin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.17 / 1.91) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Dalian Aerbin are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dalian Aerbin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Guangzhou R&F's last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guangzhou R&F 70% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 60% (last 10 away games).

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