Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-2 Chengdu Better City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Guangzhou Evergrande FC take on Chengdu Better City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium plays host to Guangzhou Evergrande FC versus Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 12 August 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home record at Wuyuan River Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wuyuan River Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guangzhou Evergrande FC are significantly better at Wuyuan River Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chengdu Better City (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 1L across 7 road games this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Chengdu Better City arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Guangzhou Evergrande FC have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Chengdu Better City in only 29%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading
Guangzhou Evergrande FC half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guangzhou Evergrande FC 23% versus Chengdu Better City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31% | Chengdu Better City 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.81 xG and Chengdu Better City 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.702 / defence 0.958 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.722 / defence 0.811. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.125. Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games / 11 Chengdu Better City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33% | Draw 36% | Chengdu Better City 31%. Fair-value odds: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | Chengdu Better City 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Chengdu Better City's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.59 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 20% | Chengdu Better City 29% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33% | Draw 36% | Chengdu Better City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.81 / Chengdu Better City 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.702 / def 0.958 | Chengdu Better City attack 0.722 / def 0.811 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Chengdu Better City xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City kick off?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1 - 2 Chengdu Better City.
Where is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City part of?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our statistical model gives Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 33% chance of winning, Chengdu Better City a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City will score (BTTS).
Will Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City in?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Chengdu Better City (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack at 0.70x the league average against Chengdu Better City's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chengdu Better City's attack (0.72x) against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 25/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
36%
2.82
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
Total xG
1.59
0.78
Chengdu Better City xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.34
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.5 | 15.9 | 6.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0.78 for Chengdu Better City, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Guangzhou Evergrande FC come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 0D 10L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chengdu Better City sit at 1.46 PPG from 13 outings (4W 7D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Guangzhou Evergrande FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's home form reads 2W 0D 4L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Chengdu Better City have taken 1.50 points per game from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are averaging 0.54 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Chengdu Better City are on 1.00 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guangzhou Evergrande FC have seen both teams score in 23% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
Chengdu Better City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City in coming into this match?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 3W 0D 10L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Chengdu Better City have gone 4W 7D 2L in their last 13 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home or Chengdu Better City away?
Chengdu Better City's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Chengdu Better City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Chengdu Better City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Chengdu Better City in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
0
Draws
2
Chengdu Better City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City?
From 2 meetings on record, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, Chengdu Better City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2022, when Chengdu Better City 2-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Chengdu Better City see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC) and 33% (Chengdu Better City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 17% for Chengdu Better City.
On the defensive side: Guangzhou Evergrande FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chengdu Better City in 50%; Guangzhou Evergrande FC have failed to score in 50% of games; Chengdu Better City in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guangzhou Evergrande FC home games / Chengdu Better City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guangzhou Evergrande FC play Chengdu Better City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent matches and 33% of Chengdu Better City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Chengdu Better City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's recent games and 17% of Chengdu Better City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guangzhou Evergrande FC and Chengdu Better City tend to score early?
Guangzhou Evergrande FC have had a goal before half-time in 17% of their recent matches, Chengdu Better City in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chengdu Better City defy the odds to beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1-2 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.81 xG and Chengdu Better City 0.78 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.70 / defence 0.96 against Chengdu Better City attack 0.72 / defence 0.81, drawn from 25/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guangzhou Evergrande FC 33% | Draw 36% | Chengdu Better City 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Chengdu Better City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guangzhou Evergrande FC 31%, Chengdu Better City 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did.
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.69. Form held, and they took the win. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.