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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dalian Zhixing edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dalian Zhixing beat Sichuan Jiuniu 2-1 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.75 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.74 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.74 / defence 0.86 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 22/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 60% | Draw 26% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14%, with Dalian Zhixing to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dalian Zhixing 27%, Sichuan Jiuniu 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dalian Zhixing arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights