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Poisson model rates Dalian Zhixing at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Meizhou Kejia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Meizhou Kejia make the trip to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to face Dalian Zhixing in Super League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 13 June 2025 at 12:35 UTC.

Form

Meizhou Kejia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Meizhou Kejia's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.45 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.763 / defence 1.084 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.859 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.443. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Dalian Zhixing games / 43 Meizhou Kejia games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 39% | Draw 28% | Meizhou Kejia 34%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Meizhou Kejia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Dalian Zhixing as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dalian Zhixing if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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