🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Hangzhou Greentown travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Monday 30 June 2025, 12:35 UTC.

Form Guide

Across all Super League games this season, Hangzhou Greentown have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

On the road, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Dalian Zhixing, 0 for Hangzhou Greentown and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.24 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.741 / defence 1.020 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.226 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.325. Dalian Zhixing's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hangzhou Greentown have an above-average attack strength of 1.226 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Dalian Zhixing games / 45 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 29% | Draw 24% | Hangzhou Greentown 47%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Hangzhou Greentown 2.13. Hangzhou Greentown hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights