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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Wuhan Three Towns 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Wuhan Three Towns 1-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.86 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 1.11 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Chengdu Better City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 55% | Draw 23% | Wuhan Three Towns 22%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Wuhan Three Towns 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights