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Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Sichuan Jiuniu.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Sichuan Jiuniu 5-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.78 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.70 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.93 / defence 0.79 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.66 / defence 1.19, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 63% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 14%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 63%, Sichuan Jiuniu 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights