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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 4-1 hammering of SHANGHAI SIPG.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat SHANGHAI SIPG 4-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.42 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.95 / defence 0.64 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.50 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 38% | Draw 30% | SHANGHAI SIPG 32%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, SHANGHAI SIPG 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 2.04 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights