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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Shandong Luneng 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Shandong Luneng 2-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.29 xG and Shandong Luneng 0.90 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.11 / defence 0.65 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 69% | Draw 18% | Shandong Luneng 13%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Shandong Luneng 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights