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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 13, as Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Youth Island drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.87 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 0.94 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chengdu Better City fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.93 / defence 0.71 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 59% | Draw 23% | Qingdao Youth Island 18%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 63%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights