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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Chengdu Better City edge out Hangzhou Greentown 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.46 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.03 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 0.89 / defence 0.73 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 46% | Draw 29% | Hangzhou Greentown 26%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 60%, Hangzhou Greentown 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights