Chengdu Better City 3-0 Hangzhou Greentown – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hangzhou Greentown make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at 12:35 UTC.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chengdu Better City's home record at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Hangzhou Greentown's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 2.40 for Hangzhou Greentown. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Chengdu Better City 1W, Hangzhou Greentown 1W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 1–2 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Chengdu Better City half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 49% versus Hangzhou Greentown 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 51% | Hangzhou Greentown 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.34 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.122 / defence 0.713 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.118 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.439. Chengdu Better City's defence rating of 0.713 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 Chengdu Better City games / 34 Hangzhou Greentown games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 41% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Hangzhou Greentown 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chengdu Better City 30% | Hangzhou Greentown 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 Apr 2024, 12:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 41% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.34 / Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.122 / def 0.713 | Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.118 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown kicked off at 12:35 on Wednesday 10 April 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 41% chance of winning, Hangzhou Greentown a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Record (4 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 2 | Hangzhou Greentown 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Hangzhou Greentown's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Hangzhou Greentown's attack (1.12x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.72
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
8%
12.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.15 for Hangzhou Greentown, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 63 games, going 33W 19D 11L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Hangzhou Greentown sit at 1.86 PPG from 63 outings (33W 18D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Chengdu Better City against 1.86 for Hangzhou Greentown. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 18W 10D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hangzhou Greentown have taken 1.69 points per game from 32 outings (14W 12D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Hangzhou Greentown are on 1.87 scored and 0.98 conceded. Hangzhou Greentown's attacking output running into Chengdu Better City's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 33W 19D 11L in their last 63 games (1.87 PPG), while Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Hangzhou Greentown away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.00 PPG; Hangzhou Greentown away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Hangzhou Greentown been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Hangzhou Greentown in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won 4-0 on 25 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hangzhou Greentown — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
3
Draws
1
Hangzhou Greentown
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
From 9 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Hangzhou Greentown have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Chengdu Better City 4-0 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 53%, Hangzhou Greentown 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Chengdu Better City and 59% for Hangzhou Greentown. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Hangzhou Greentown away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Hangzhou Greentown?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Chengdu Better City's games and 72% of Hangzhou Greentown's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Hangzhou Greentown usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 59% of Hangzhou Greentown's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Hangzhou Greentown tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Hangzhou Greentown in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Chengdu Better City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hangzhou Greentown.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Hangzhou Greentown 3-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.34 xG and Hangzhou Greentown 1.15 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hangzhou Greentown landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.12 / defence 0.71 against Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.12 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 41% | Draw 27% | Hangzhou Greentown 32%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 51%, Hangzhou Greentown 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.87 PPG, Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.