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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Beijing Guoan.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chengdu Better City beat Beijing Guoan 2-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park, Regular Season - 18, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.60 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.38 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Beijing Guoan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.12 / defence 0.76 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.38 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 43% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 33%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 62%, Beijing Guoan 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Chengdu Better City's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.

Beijing Guoan's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Chengdu Better City 1.98 PPG, Beijing Guoan 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chengdu Better City win broke the near-deadlock. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights