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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 4, as Changchun Yatai and Wuhan Three Towns drew 1-1 in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.69 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 0.99 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.09 / defence 0.98 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.68 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 53% | Draw 26% | Wuhan Three Towns 21%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Wuhan Three Towns 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG, Wuhan Three Towns 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights