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Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Changchun Yatai beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.61 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.92 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.66 / defence 1.00 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.67 / defence 1.43, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 52% | Draw 29% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 63%, Sichuan Jiuniu 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 0.86 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights