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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Shandong Luneng defy the odds to beat Changchun Yatai 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 1-2 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.92 xG and Shandong Luneng 1.92 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 24% | Shandong Luneng 38%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shandong Luneng win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Shandong Luneng 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Shandong Luneng's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shandong Luneng arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights