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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Qingdao Youth Island 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Changchun Yatai beat Qingdao Youth Island 1-0 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.23 xG and Qingdao Youth Island 1.18 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Qingdao Youth Island landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.74 / defence 1.00 against Qingdao Youth Island attack 0.87 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 37% | Draw 29% | Qingdao Youth Island 35%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 67%, Qingdao Youth Island 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Changchun Yatai's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Qingdao Youth Island's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.07 PPG, Qingdao Youth Island 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Qingdao Youth Island (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights